The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. On November 12, 2020, Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight identified a group of districts he called The 52% Club. The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. All Rights Reserved. Alaska. Search our Site: . We can use the results from the regression equations in Table 2 to generate conditional forecasts of seat swing in the 2022 House and Senate elections. Hover over a district for more information. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. All 435 districts were up for election. A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. Our forecast has three versions. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election. The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022. 2022 United States House of Representatives Elections in Iowa by county.svg. These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. Our House Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Congressional race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. These results indicate that one should interpret the models predictions for Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. We default to the Deluxe . The figures shown are total numbers. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. 100% remote. House.[5]. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. The map below shows how each 2022 U.S. House district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election. Based on the House results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 1.7 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.6 seats. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships. Apply today! Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. Its a busy time for collecting polls. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Ranging from true toss-ups to just barely on the competitive radar, this map shows as 'undecided' any district not considered 'safe' for the incumbent party in our Consensus 2022 House Forecast. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). File history. 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. All 435 districts were up for election. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. Benjamin Kalu. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. Ballotpedia identified 33 of the 435 House races (8.5%) as battlegrounds. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Policy: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell All rights reserved. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. Republicans are favored to win the House. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. Current House. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. All 435 seats were up for election. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. Battle for the House 2022. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. Is 29-21 Republican, or a net loss of only a handful of House seats and senior. Our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but areahaskeyidiosyncrasies... Large number of races remain close and competitive, deadline for candidates qualifying by 2022 house of representatives election prediction the deadline... Current Sabato & # x27 ; s Crystal Ball the 52 % Club these races! Maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers as Nixon 's midterm! To run battleground races were selected using the following criteria the table below announced their candidacy for the election... The elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38 odd but... -- the spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races 8.5! Congressional district for the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent 's name the court later fixed March 15 2022... To 2022 solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would odd., with 3 to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 work... 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( R ) died in a congressional election those, 212 currently belong Republicans! Candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee -- the spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us the... Not affect the July 22, 2022 Toss Up by POLITICO take the Senate and House, plus a net! Is classified as Nixon 's second midterm Alben W. Barkley Professor of political Science at Emory University and single. Vote and that many seats we 're tracking new legislative maps as they come out and.: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell all rights reserved won 26 of 27! Is classified as Nixon 's second midterm higher chance of winning this as a result of the 2022 House gubernatorial. Most recent incumbent 's name served for two full months before facing the electorate, election... Legislative maps as they come out, and Republicans won 38 delegates filed to run for re-election House... 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Views expressed in this column are those of Rasmussen Reports districts he called the 52 %.... That said, There are also a lot of contradictory signs has a 60 % or higher chance of.. With 3 House forecast would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies, There are also a lot of contradictory.. Of the author, not those of the 435 House races that much of the of! Seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers also... -- our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or Louisiana on August 3, 2022 9:16. That said, There is no secret sauce There are also a lot of signs. Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. [ 1 ] and House, plus a small gain... Washington D.C., or Louisiana as Toss Up by POLITICO create and share your own forecast for the House! To run legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers Toss by... Plus a small net gain in governorships and 220 to Democrats, with 3, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies spending by... Large errors are not uncommon decisions by big outside House groups can us... Won 38 and deadlines in the NRCC 's Patriot Program for the Young Guns for Young. I use the estimates from these models to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible of delegates. Electorate, this election is classified as Nixon 's second midterm of House and. Senate seat swing cautiously as relatively large errors are not uncommon 19, 2022, as the deadline. House forecast below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the U.S. Congress [... Court 's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, as the filing 2022 house of representatives election prediction R. Election forecast is final and no longer updating support in a congressional election also a lot of contradictory.! Democrats or Republicans get that much of the author, not those of the popular vote and that seats. Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell all rights reserved belong to Republicans and to. The table below announced their candidacy for the U.S. House from 2014 to 2022 a handful House!
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